What do Covid-19 and climate change have in common? They are both capable of disrupting systems and global networks, with cascading impacts across sectors: they are both systemic risks.

The systemic and uncertain challenges facing the world today require an integrated perspective for assessing risk, according to a new briefing note published today by Future Earth’s Risk Knowledge Action Network (Risk KAN), the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the International Science Council (ISC).

The Systemic Risk Briefing Note provides a stocktake of current concepts and understandings of systemic risk, highlighting how research and practice can address current challenges in a complex world. It argues that only by reducing system vulnerabilities will the world be in a better position to reduce systemic risks.

“In a globally connected world facing a climate emergency, old and new conflicts, and the long-lasting consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, complex risks are the ‘new normal,'” says Jana Sillmann of the University of Hamburg, Germany, and the Center for International Climate Research, Norway, who has led the writing of the Briefing Note and is co-chair of the Knowledge Action Network on Emergent Risks and Extreme Events (Risk KAN).

“In the Briefing Note we argue that characteristics of systemic risk, such as the transgression of geopolitical boundaries and an emphasis on the interconnectedness of system elements, set systemic risks apart from conventional risk assessment approaches and risk governance,” says Sillmann.

Risk assessments and management approaches cannot afford to treat problems in isolation. For example, the latest IPCC Report broadens its “risk framing” approach to encompass both understanding the impacts of climate change and our responses to climate change (including mitigation and adaptation efforts), and considers how risks relate to the achievement of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals.

A Toolbox Approach

The authors of the Briefing Note highlight that, given the uncertainties and complexity involved in identifying and analyzing systemic risks, no single streamlined approach will capture the complexity of interconnecting, compounding and cascading risk. Instead, they advocate taking a “toolbox approach” with an iterative approach to learning, using multiple lines of evidence and a range of methods and perspectives. Moreover, toolbox approaches that are built on an open and inclusive process that includes a broad set of stakeholders can increase trust and buy-in by decision-makers.

The Briefing Note on Systemic Risk will be a useful resource in helping to improve understanding of systemic challenges, and to guide appropriate planning.

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The Risk KAN is a knowledge action network of Future Earth, which provides an open platform for scientific communities from across scientific disciplines and engineering working on extreme events, disaster risk reduction and governance to exchange information, knowledge and data and engage in collaborative research activities.