Interconnected Risks

Global Systemic Crisis

When asked to identify risks with synergistic effects and likely to lead to a global systemic crisis, over 62% of scientists included at least 4 of the following 5 risks: climate change – extreme weather – biodiversity loss – food crises – water crises.

Together these five global risks threaten the continued integrity of our biosphere and its capacity to support human life, i.e. food and water. A number of secondary global risks were also strongly associated with these five, namely involuntary migration, social instability, and failure of national governance or regional / global governance, highlighting the systematic links between climate, ecosystems and society. The question on interconnected risks was assessed by 82 of the 222 scientists who responded to the survey.

A Climate Emergency and Planetary Crisis

72% of responding scientists identified climate change as a central driver to a potential future global systemic crisis.

Of the scientists responding to the question on which global risks are most likely to have synergistic effects and lead to a global systemic crisis, 72% of responses included climate change. Given the serious concerns that scientists have raised about our capacity to keep global climate warming below 2ºC under current development trajectories, it stresses the urgency and scale of rapid societal transformation needed to avoid a climate crisis. It is crucial that we recognize that the climate crisis is not isolated, but connected to many other systems, in particular, biodiversity loss, food crises and water crises.

Top Risks

Scientists rank Environmental & Societal risks as most urgent global risks.

Based on responses from 221 global change scientists, Environmental or Societal risks ranked as the top 8 most urgent risks and were perceived to be likely with the potential for major to severe impacts across multiple countries were either. Of these, extreme weather stood out as the top global risk.

Along with extreme weather, biodiversity loss, water crises and climate change were the next most urgent risks in terms of their perceived likelihood and impact. These were followed closely by food crises, failure of urban planning and involuntary migration as well as natural disasters and man-made disasters. 

Committed Risks

Scientists were asked to identify risks which they believe we have already committed to or will commit to in the next 10-years that will put us on a path towards irreversible or catastrophic outcomes. Scientists overwhelmingly pointed towards climate change, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse.

These results echo conclusions in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (IPCC 2018) and the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (IPCC 2019) which highlight a number of long-term impacts already committed to in the climate system. For example, when a forest is dying, it does not release CO₂ to the atmosphere immediately, but gradually over the following years and decades through microbial decomposition (i.e. committed emissions). Similarly, when a fragment forests do not immediately lose species in those patches but they go gradually go extinct locally as the forest patch is insufficient in size to support their populations (Tilman et al 1994). Recent assessment by the IPBES warns that up to a million species may be threatened with extinction within decades due to a combination of land use change, direct exploitation, climate change, pollution and invasive species (IPBES 2019).

Emerging Risks

When asked to identify additional or emerging risks not already considered in the survey, but of rising importance in the context of global sustainability and stability, seven risks were commonly cited by scientists (listed below). Of note is the large number of emerging global risks focused on societal issues, e.g. erosion of societal trust and cohesion, rising inequality, and rising nationalism; as well as lesser discussed issues such as deterioration of mental health. Together these suggest a need for greater consideration of multiple dimensions of societal well-being in our efforts for a societal transition towards a safe and equitable future.

Erosion of societal trust, cohesion, and values

Growing distrust within and between groups (including government, business, public institutions and the public), leading to an increase in social tensions and individualism.

Rising inequality

A major divide in the quality and quantity of resources available to different segments of the population, including, but not limited to natural resources, income, and healthcare.

Failing to take into account feedbacks across systems

In development, planning, and business decisions, failing to take into account the interconnections between problems, solutions, risks, and opportunities could have significant detrimental consequences.

Rise of nationalism

The emergence of political structures that promote nationalist ideas of identity and isolation from other countries and undermine intergovernmental processes.

Deterioration of social infrastructure

The weakening of services and facilities that help communities meet their social needs.

Overpopulation

The potential for the world population to reach a threshold that exceeds the planet’s carrying capacity, potentially leading to ecological and societal collapse.

Deterioration of mental health

A significant and widespread decline in mental health affecting emotional, psychological, and social well-being with impacts on economic, political, and social spheres.